I’m betting Brexit will happen and I have money on spy put right now. I wish I didn’t bet as I realize it is not a wise thing to bet on such a event. My original plan was to enter the position last Friday and then retreat with profits before the brexit result is announced but I was trapped since last Friday. I already sold some of my position with loss yesterday but still keep a large portion. The Market Maker definitely knows what I’m thinking about. The market has been rallying since last Friday and seems so sure Brexit will fail.

Let’s see.  Right now the results showing leaving is not that unlikely.

Beyond my investment, I personally believe British should exit from EU for their own benefit, not for some great aspiration of other countries. I couldn’t see any benefit for the country and its people to stay in EU, except for big international companies and its allies who need its voice in EU. I don’t believe British will become less important in world politics if it leaves EU. Quite on the contrary,  I believe British will become much more important as now it stands an independent country and gets to sign trade deals with other countries independently, with other commonwealth countries, United States, China, Japan, etc.

I also don’t believe EU will punish British by shutting down its markets. someone would say British will lose the whole market while EU gets to distribute the loss between its members. but I think Germany will be most heavily impacted and it will do something for its own benefit.

Update: : Brexit Won! Congrats!



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