Category: Stock Investing

牛人博客

股市:

雾灵十二少http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myoverview/64640/

雅歌1:     http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/52780/all.html

Diffusion:   http://skyparchment.blogspot.com/

双手互搏 http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/bbs/archive.php?SubID=finance&keyword=%E5%8F%8C%E6%89%8B%E4%BA%92%E6%90%8F&username=on

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/holiday-seasonality/

Quarter Earning Calendar: https://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

luxh009 : 几个指标看SPY要跟的,只是会晚一点http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4030335.html

CYB WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy Fund:  http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4032256.html

http://stockcharts.com/public

Cobra’s public chart (ranked #4) : http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp/2

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/what-is-this-bullbear-shall-have-legs/

 

Anthony Caldaro (Elliott Wave) public charts: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

Number #1 ranked (Joanne Klein) : http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832

Decisionpoint:    http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/author/oewcaldaro/

Dancing with the trend: http://stockcharts.com/articles/dancing/

Do the CPCE and VIX suggest a top is imminent?

 

https://signalgenerator.wordpress.com/category/nyupv/
SVXY长期投资的可能性 [引用]

打算探讨一下SVXY长期投资的可能性。今天没有时间写。有兴趣的同学可以自己看一下SVXY的走势。

也可看一下我去年的帖子。

2015年9月25日写的SVXY未来一个月盈利前景

UVXY系列,兼谈SVXY
UVXY 之一 每年平均跌85% 你若做空赚85%

UVXY 之二 为什么长期来说UVXY稳跌 卖空UVXY稳赚

UVXY 之三 做空UVXY的风险到底有多压力山大

UVXY 之四 n种交易方法 到底是赔钱还是赚钱

UVXY 之五 机会突然就在眼前了 离入场只剩一步 (现实是差了好几步哈哈)

UVXY 之六 如何才能做空UVXY及替代办法(SVXY)

UVXY 之七 空仓开始后的止损和止盈

 

Earning report: https://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html

Technical stock chart:

good website: stockcharts.com

I.    Relative Strength Index:

Reference:  http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/042203.asp   Introduction to RSI

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/08/rsi-rollercoaster.asp  how to trade with RSI

Reference: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:relative_strength_index_rsi

Overbought(Oversold):

RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. These traditional levels can also be adjusted to better fit the security or analytical requirements. Raising overbought to 80 or lowering oversold to 20 will reduce the number of overbought/oversold readings. Short-term traders sometimes use 2-period RSI to look for overbought readings above 80 and oversold readings below 20.  Momentum oscillators can become overbought (oversold) and remain so in a strong up (down) trend.  Like many momentum oscillators, overbought and oversold readings for RSI work best when prices move sideways within a range。

Divergence:

According to Wilder, divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not confirm price. A bullish divergence occurs when the underlying security makes a lower low and RSI forms a higher low. RSI does not confirm the lower low and this shows strengthening momentum. A bearish divergence forms when the security records a higher high and RSI forms a lower high. RSI does not confirm the new high and this shows weakening momentum

Before getting too excited about divergences as great trading signals, it must be noted that divergences are misleading in a strong trend. A strong uptrend can show numerous bearish divergences before a top actually materializes.Conversely, bullish divergences can appear in a strong downtrend – and yet the downtrend continues. Chart 6 shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with three bearish divergences and a continuing uptrend. These bearish divergences may have warned of a short-term pullback, but there was clearly no major trend reversal.

Positive-Negative Reversals:

Cardwell’s interpretation of divergences differs from Wilder. Cardwell considered bearish divergences as bull market phenomenon. In other words, bearish divergences are more likely to form in uptrends. Similarly, bullish divergences are considered bear market phenomenon indicative of a downtrend.

A positive reversal forms when RSI forges a lower low and the security forms a higher low. This lower low is not at oversold levels, but usually somewhere between 30 and 50. A positive reversal indicates a possible breakup from bottom. Chart 11 shows MMM with a positive reversal forming in June 2009. MMM broke resistance a few weeks later and RSI moved above 70. Despite weaker momentum with a lower low in RSI, MMM held above its prior low and showed underlying strength. In essence, price action overruled momentum.

Chart 11 - RSI Reversals

A negative reversal is the opposite of a positive reversal. RSI forms a higher high, but the security forms a lower high. In the example cited in the article, this negative reversal foreshadowed the big support break in late June and sharp decline.

Chart 12 - RSI Reversals

Failure Swing:

Failure swings are independent of price action. In other words, failure swings focus solely on RSI for signals and ignore the concept of divergences.

A bullish failure swing forms when RSI moves below 30 (oversold), bounces above 30, pulls back, holds above 30 and then breaks its prior high. It is basically a move to oversold levels and then a higher low above oversold levels.

A bearish failure swing forms when RSI moves above 70, pulls back, bounces, fails to exceed 70 and then breaks its prior low. It is basically a move to overbought levels and then a lower high below overbought levels.

fail_swing.gif

make sure you recognize the failure-swing points and confirm the potential breakout.

In the left figure, entitled “Failure Swing: Top,” the high tops out at slightly above the 70 level and then falls off to about 60, which is known as the fail point. Rising again, the RSI value falls short of the 70 mark and thus results in a failure swing, and, as the value then reaches the fail point again, it is known as the failure-swing point, and the sell trigger is pulled. “Failure Swing: Bottom” shows us the exact opposite as the low of 30 is not exceeded after a fail point is established at about the 40 mark. The failure-swing point is established and the buy signal is in place at or about the 40 value.

Parameters

The default look-back period for RSI is 14, but this can be lowered to increase sensitivity or raised to decrease sensitivity. 10-day RSI is more likely to reach overbought or oversold levels than 20-day RSI. The look-back parameters also depend on a security’s volatility. 14-day RSI for internet retailer Amazon (AMZN) is more likely to become overbought or oversold than 14-day RSI for Duke Energy (DUK), a utility.

 

 

An example for SPY in recent 5 years:

II MACD

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4012693.html:关于macd的一点浅见。

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_convergence_divergence_macd

Because the MACD is unbounded, it is not particularly useful for identifying overbought and oversold levels.

计算方法

MACD是计算两条不同速度(长期与中期)的指数平滑移动平均线(EMA)的差离状况来作为研判行情的基础。

DIFF

⒈首先分别计算出收市价SHORT日指数平滑移动平均线与LONG日指数平滑移动平均线,分别记为EMA(SHORT)与EMA(LONG)。
⒉求这两条指数平滑移动平均线的差,即:DIFF=EMA(SHORT)-EMA(LONG)

DEA

⒊再计算DIFF的M日的平均的指数平滑移动平均线,记为DEA。

MACD

⒋最后用DIFF减DEA,得MACD。MACD通常绘制成围绕零轴线波动的柱形图。
在绘制的图形上,DIFF与DEA形成了两条快慢移动平均线,买进卖出信 号也就决定于这两条线的交叉点。很明显,MACD是一个中长期趋势的投资技术工具。缺省时,系统在副图上绘制 SHORT=12,LONG=26,MID=9时的DIFF线、DEA线、MACD线(柱状线)。

缺点

⒈由于MACD是一项中、长线指标,买进点、卖出点和最低价、最高价之间的价差较大。当行情忽上忽下幅度太小或盘整时,按照信号进场后随即又要出场,买卖之间可能没有利润,也许还要赔点价差或手续费。
⒉一两天内涨跌幅度特别大时,MACD来不及反应,因为MACD的移动相当缓和,比较行情的移动有一定的时间差,所以一旦行情迅速大幅涨跌,MACD不会立即产生信号,此时,MACD无法发生作用。

3. DEA 在盘整局面时失误率较高,但如果配合 RSIKDj 指标可适当弥补缺点。

III:  Bollinger Band

Identifying W bottom and M top

W-Bottoms were part of Arthur Merrill’s work that identified 16 patterns with a basic W shape. Bollinger uses these various W patterns with Bollinger Bands to identify W-Bottoms. A “W-Bottom” forms in a downtrend and involves two reaction lows. In particular, Bollinger looks for W-Bottoms where the second low is lower than the first, but holds above the lower band. There are four steps to confirm a W-Bottom with Bollinger Bands. First, a reaction low forms. This low is usually, but not always, below the lower band. Second, there is a bounce towards the middle band. Third, there is a new price low in the security. This low holds above the lower band. The ability to hold above the lower band on the test shows less weakness on the last decline. Fourth, the pattern is confirmed with a strong move off the second low and a resistance break.

M top:

M-Tops were also part of Arthur Merrill’s work that identified 16 patterns with a basic M shape. Bollinger uses these various M patterns with Bollinger Bands to identify M Bottoms. According to Bollinger, tops are usually more complicated and drawn out than bottoms. Double tops, head-and-shoulders patterns and diamonds represent evolving tops.

In its most basic form, an M-Top is similar to a double top. However, the reaction highs are not always equal. The first high can be higher or lower than the second high. Bollinger suggests looking for signs of non-confirmation when a security is making new highs. This is basically the opposite of the W-Bottom. A non-confirmation occurs with three steps. First, a security forges a reaction high above the upper band. Second, there is a pullback towards the middle band. Third, prices move above the prior high, but fail to reach the upper band. This is a warning sign. The inability of the second reaction high to reach the upper band shows waning momentum, which can foreshadow a trend reversal. Final confirmation comes with a support break or bearish indicator signal.

IV: Bollinger BandWidth

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bollinger_band_width

A new advance starts with a Squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band. A new decline starts with a Squeeze and subsequent break below the lower band.

The BandWidth indicator can be used to identify the Bollinger Band Squeeze. This alerts chartists to prepare for a move, but direction depends on the subsequent band break. A Squeeze and break above the upper band is bullish, while a Squeeze and break below the lower band is bearish. Be careful for head-fakes though. Sometimes the first break fails to hold as prices reverse the other way. Strong breaks hold and seldom look back. An upside breakout followed by an immediate pullback should serve as a warning.

V: The Money Flow Index (MFI)

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:money_flow_index_mfi

VI KDJ

KDJ随机指标反应比较敏感快速,是一种进行中短期趋势波段分析研判的较佳的技术指标。一般对做大资金大波段的人来说,一般当月KDJ值在低位时逐步进场吸纳;主力平时运作时偏重周KDJ所处的位置,对中线波段的循环高低点作出研判结果,所以往往出现单边式造成日KDJ的屡屡钝化现象;日KDJ对股价变化方向反应极为敏感,是日常买卖进出的重要方法;对于做小波段的短线客来说,30分钟和60分钟KDJ又是重要的参考指标;对于已指定买卖计划即刻下单的投资者,5分钟和15分钟KDJ可以提供最佳的进出时间。

VII:Stochastics: An Accurate Buy And Sell Indicator

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/073001.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/010915/use-weekly-stochastics-time-market-effectively.asp: together with fibonacci retracement and EMA

 

Reading the Chart
The K line is the fastest and the D line is the slower of the two lines. The investor needs to watch as the D line and the price of the issue begin to change and move into either the overbought (over the 80 line) or the oversold (under the 20 line) positions. The investor needs to consider selling the stock when the indicator moves above the 80 level. Conversely, the investor needs to consider buying an issue that is below the 20 line and is starting to move up with increased volume.

Over the years many have written articles exploring the “tweaking” of this indicator, but new investors should concentrate on the basics of stochastics.

 

VIII:  Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

Developed by Donald Lambert, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is a momentum oscillator that can be used to identify a new trend or warn of extreme conditions. This strategy uses weekly CCI to dictate the trading bias when it surges above +100 or plunges below -100, which are key levels noted by Lambert. Once the trading bias is set, daily CCI is used to generate trading signals when it reaches its extremes.

Dips below -100 are deemed oversold and moves back above -100 signal the start of an oversold bounce (green dotted line). The upper band tag and breakout started the uptrend. CCI then identified tradable pullbacks with dips below -100. This is an example of combining Bollinger Bands with a momentum oscillator for trading signals.

the 10-period Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was used to identify short-term overbought situations. A move above +100 is overbought. A move back below +100 signals a resumption of the downtrend (red arrows). This system triggered two good signals in early 2010.

 

Use CCI together with BB bands:

Signal: Walking the Bands.

read  http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:bollinger_bands  

Chart 7 shows Monsanto (MON) with a walk down the lower band. The stock broke down in January with a support break and closed below the lower band. From mid January until early May, Monsanto closed below the lower band at least five times. Notice that the stock did not close above the upper band once during this period.  As such, the 10-period Commodity Channel Index (CCI) was used to identify short-term overbought situations. A move above +100 is overbought. A move back below +100 signals a resumption of the downtrend (red arrows). This system triggered two good signals in early 2010.

IX:  intraday intensity index:  volume-based indicator

X: SAR。判断止损,止盈

XI  NYUPV, NYAD

https://signalgenerator.wordpress.com/category/nyupv/

$NYAD:

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/01/17/nyad-market-breadth/

The Advance-Decline Line (AD Line) is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances, which is the number of advancing stocks less the number of declining stocks. Net Advances is positive when advances exceed declines and negative when declines exceed advances. The AD Line is a cumulative measure of Net Advances. It rises when Net Advances is positive and falls when Net Advances is negative. Chartists can use Net Advances to plot the AD Line for the index and compare it to the performance of the actual index. The AD Line should confirm an advance or a decline with similar movements. Bullish or bearish divergences in the AD Line signal a change in participation that could foreshadow a reversal.

XII: DRB 回购指数 nasdaq US Buyback Achievers Index

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/4032192.html

13: accumulation/distribution  Volume based indicator

05/21/2016 Weekend Update

Postby Cobra » Fri May 20, 2016 4:39 pm

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows clearly more distribution than accumulation, not good.

    When accumulation and distribution are down means we’re in trending phase.
    When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it’s a bottoming phase.
    When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it’s the topping phase.

 

inst b sell.png

Smart money are buying while QQQ is down, so it’s case 2.), the pullback was over? I know it conflicts with the Institutional buying and selling chart I posted earlier. But that chart only reflects what is happening now, not the future while the smart money chart here does reflect the future, so I’d put more weight on the smart money chart.

NASDAQ_100_Combo_Hedgers_Position.png
How I use the chart:

I don’t care what’s the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

14

炒股需要理论知识。大家少灌水,多学习,多讨论。

Coursera上有很多免费视频课程,授课老师都是名校的教授。有兴趣的同学不妨前往看
看。

@ Computational Investing, Part I – GIT的Dr. Tucker Balch
https://www.coursera.org/learn/computational-investing

@ Microeconomics Principles – UIUC
https://www.coursera.org/course/microecon

@ The Power of Microeconomics: Economic Principles in the Real World – UC,
Irvine
https://www.coursera.org/learn/principles-of-microeconomics

@ Finance 方面的课程
https://www.coursera.org/browse/business/finance?languages=en

@ Economics 方面的课程
https://www.coursera.org/browse/social-sciences?languages=en#ec

15.

波段还可以分得更细些。这两者的关系取决于不同阶段,通货膨胀初级阶段,通胀上升,股票上升,黄金上升。通胀后期阶段,通胀上升,股票下跌,黄金上升。在经济放缓时期,黄金有避险因素,所以负相关可能会增加。但是现在的情况,我觉得黄金的涨跌应该更取决于货币竞争。所以我持保留意见。谢谢

看到一段话。感觉像是在描述自己。娱乐一下。

想到一个绝妙的炒股盈利办法:如果你经常炒股亏损,把资金分成3份,一份你来操作,要往死里亏。另外2份交给别人来操作,操作跟你的是相反的,或者买相对 应的反相ETF。买UVXY啊,稍微盈利一点,就跑,亏损就死拿。买DUST啊,稍微盈利就跑,亏损就死拿。各种三倍杠杠ETF玩起来。主要的玩法就是稍 微盈利就跑,亏损就死拿,被套加仓,割肉在底部。下跌做多,上涨的标做空